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Article intéressant qui réflète la situation présente et à venir au Canada.
Au cas où vous ne l'aviez pas remarqué encore, il est temps de déplacer ces billes du Canada aux USA pour les prochaines années...
Au cas où vous ne l'aviez pas remarqué encore, il est temps de déplacer ces billes du Canada aux USA pour les prochaines années...
http://business.financialpost.com/2...-canadas-economy-is-entering-a-world-of-hurt/11 charts that show Canada’s economy is entering a world of hurt
Rob Wile, Business Insider | 13/05/16 | Last Updated: 13/05/16 2:25 PM ET
Economists have been debating whether Canada’s housing market was in a bubble and when that bubble would burst.
In a new report, British Columbia-based Pacifica Partners Capital Management asserts that question is missing some much scarier stuff going on.
Yes, housing is now in decline after largely avoiding the 2008 shock, they say. But everything else has also been going haywire: unemployment, credit, stocks, etc.
That is all the more remarkable, they argue, because Canada emerged from the 2008 crisis appearing a paragon of stability in the world.
“A pronounced shift in both Canadian and US economies has taken place,” write Pacifica’s analysts. “The Canadian economy, once the envy of Americans, Europeans, and others, is now widely viewed as a commodity dependent, “one trick pony”.
In a series of charts we’ve reproduced here, Pacifica shows how a “mean reversion” is taking place in North America, with the U.S. economy recovering while Canada’s is for a world of hurt.
Home prices in all major Canadian markets are way off all-time highs.
Pacifica Partners
Vancouver, Toronto, and Montreal are barely into the first year of “a potential lengthy period of price weakness.”
In Vancouver, considered Canada’s “bubbliest” city, average single family home sale prices are down over 14% from their highs.
Pacifica Partners
And average condo prices are close to 2007 levels.
Canadian home starts are now declining at the fastest rate since the financial crisis.
Pacifica Partners
This is the indicator that gives Pacifica most pause. They write: “With 20% of Canadian GDP directly involved in construction and real estate activities, a continued slowdown in housing-starts will have a marked impact on the consumer behavior and ripple through other consumer sensitive areas of the economy, including retail sales, financial services, transportation, and warehousing.”
Canadian leading economic indicators are now falling behind American ones by the widest margin in over two decades.
Pacifica Partners
The strength of the US and weakness of Canada is not confined to real estate markets.
And all major components of home ownership costs have grown at least as much as Canadian core inflation.
Pacifica Partners
This includes replacement costs, property taxes, insurance, maintenance, furnishings, and miscellaneous expenses. In some cases it’s more than twice as much as CPI.
U.S. and Canadian stock markets are diverging.
Pacifica Partners
The S&P TSX composite, Canada’s main index, has lagged the S&P 500 for the better part of two years. “This ominous pattern could foreseeably continue should drivers of the Canadian stock market, notably global commodity demand, continue to weaken,” Pacifica writes.
Canadian consumer confidence has “slid stealthily lower” after peaking in 2010.
Pacifica Partners
Pacifica notes consumer confidence is now approaching levels last seen immediately following the financial crisis.
Meanwhile, Canadian companies shed 105,400 jobs in March and April 2013. Unemployment in Toronto is hovering around 8%.
Pacifica Partners
“The weakness in the Canadian job market may come as a surprise to some readers as news headlines often indicate a reduction in the unemployment rate,” Pacifica says
Montreal unemployment is about the same.
Pacifica Partners
While the unemployment rate has been on a downward trend since the end of the recession, however, it’s gotten stuck at 7%. This is in comparison to the sub 6% unemployment rates seen in Canada before the recession.
Sticky unemployment is echoed in Canada’s “Misery Index” (inflation + unemployment rates).
Pacifica Partners
All major markets are signaling upticks in misery, despite “barely-existent inflation.”
Finally, debt to GDP is now enormous.
Pacifica Partners
Canadian debt levels relative to GDP appeared to have now stalled near the 90% levels. The amount of Canadian debt now equals the market cap of the entire Deutsche Borse.
So is it time to get bearish?
Real estate appears overvalued by approximately 30% in most major markets. “Canadian economic weakness,” Pacifica says, “the expected contraction of outstanding consumer credit, and already heightened real estate prices serve as the basis for our bearish stance.”
